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Thursday, December 10, 2009
This Blog Has Moved
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Is The Recession Over?
Several leading economic indicators are showing signs that the economy is on the road to recovery. Click the image below for a nice visualization from Mint…

Mint.com Personal Finance Software
Saturday, November 7, 2009
How to Invest With Deflation – Part 2 of 2
Today, we look at investment themes during periods of deflation.
- In deflation, debt is the enemy
- Risk is to be avoided
- Cash should be raised
- Seek high-quality bonds. By default these are US Treasuries, with the longest dated Treasury bond being 30-year maturities. While it is a little burdensome for an individual to buy single bonds which have a face value of $10,000, they can easily do so via the Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (NYSE: TLT). The Fund rose from $88.59 last June to a high of $123.15 in December and now trades in the $93 range. Dividend yield is around 3%. One could also look at high-quality corporate bonds, which can be accessed via the iBoxx $Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund (NYSE: LQD). Dividend yield is around 5%.
- Laddered CDs offer a good investment structure
- Gold typically acts well
- Renting instead of buying a home should be considered
Rising unemployment and/or falling income with no way to pay the bills is the chief concern. The investment themes above should help you navigate a deflationary period.
~Tony
Friday, November 6, 2009
How to Invest With Deflation – Part 1 of 2
We saw last time that the ingredients to deflation are present, this time, we look at how one can invest during these times.
Deflation, by definition, is a general decline in prices. It can be caused by reduction in the supply of money (not the case currently), reduction in supply of credit (yep), or decrease in personal or investment spending (yep). Deflation has the side effect of increased unemployment since there is lower levels of demand in the economy.
Declining demands leads to declining prices and if they persist, generally creates a vicious spiral of negatives such as falling profits, closing factories, shrinking employment and incomes and increasing defaults on loans by companies and individuals. Enter the Federal Reserve. They have tools (called Monetary Policy) to counter deflation…but their tools aren’t always successful. Deflation can be shortened by successful Fed action, or long if they don’t get it right, i.e. Japan has been in a period of deflation for decades starting in the early 1990s.
So, how does a person invest during such times? Answer: to be continued…
~Tony
Source: www.investopedia.com
Thursday, November 5, 2009
10 Keys To Investing For Retirement In Your 20s and 30s
The Courier recently interviewed me for an article on young adults in there 20s and 30s investing for retirement. Sara Arthurs did a nice job writing this article and accurately quoted what I had to say. Here are the key takeaways:
- Start investing now!
- Newlyweds should make saving for retirement a priority.
- Saving for your retirement is your responsibility, not your employer’s.
- Don’t depend on Social Security for your retirement.
- Invest in the stock market.
- Get help from an investment professional.
- Take full advantage of matching contributions your employer might offer to your company’s retirement plan.
- If you are eligible, invest in a Roth IRA
- Be patient with your investments.
- Aim to be debt-free in retirement.
You can read the full article for more detail on these points.
~Adam
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
3 Year-End Tax Planning Ideas
November and December are key months for individuals to focus on minimizing their income and capital gain tax liabilities. While we don't hold ourselves out as tax advisors, one of our goals is to maximize the after-tax investment returns for our clients, so we thought it would be helpful to share some tax planning techniques to consider. Since each person's tax situation is different, we recommend that you consult with your tax advisor before taking any action.
Charitable Donor-Advised Funds
Consider maximizing the tax benefit of your charitable gifts through the use of a Charitable Donor-Advised Fund. Donor-advised funds allow you to donate cash, or more ideally appreciated securities that you have held for a year or more, to a charitable account that you control. You receive a tax deduction in the year of transfer for the fair market value of the cash or securities transferred to the fund (and no capital gain is then realized by you, the donor). Assets transferred to a donor-advised fund are liquidated by the sponsoring organization and placed into an account, for which most donor-advised funds offer 5-10 investment options. At the instruction of the donor, assets can be transferred from this fund to qualified charities within the current year, or over several years.
Section 529 Plan for College Savings
Many people are now considering shifting assets they have reserved for college education expenses to accounts for your children or grandchildren through a College Savings Plan (a.k.a. Section 529 Plan). The benefit of these plans is that the investment earnings and the assets placed in these plans accounts are generally exempt from federal and state income taxes, provided that the withdrawals are used for qualified college expenses. This tax-free withdrawal feature can make 529 Plan accounts more attractive than other types of college savings strategies.
Roth IRA Conversion
If you have an IRA, it may be worthwhile to determine if you would experience long-term tax benefits from a Roth-IRA conversion.
With a Roth-IRA, withdrawals of your contributions or earnings are typically never taxed. Therefore, the long-term tax benefit of a Roth-IRA conversion (for people who find themselves in a low tax bracket) is that a small upfront tax payment, on the amount converted, can be a small price to pay for income tax savings on thousands and possibly hundreds of thousands of dollars of future earnings.
For 2009, to be eligible for a conversion your current year's adjusted gross income (AGI) will need to be less than $100,000, but starting next tax year, 2010, that income limitation will be eliminated. You may not fall into this "under $100,000 of adjusted gross income" category this year, but a one-time event (e.g., business losses, rental losses or capital losses) may reduce income to unusually low levels and make it a prime year for a Roth-IRA conversion. And, starting next tax year, 2010, with the income limitation lifted, people at any level of AGI will be eligible to make a Roth IRA conversion.
Operationally, some or all of an individual's traditional IRA is transferred to a Roth-IRA in a conversion. Taxes are due at ordinary income tax rates on the amount that is transferred, or converted. Ideally, conversions are done where the tax payer’s federal tax rate remains low, between 0% and 15%, so the upfront income tax cost are minimal. A relatively small (percentage-wise) upfront tax payment can be a small price to pay for the benefit of future tax-free withdrawals of both contributions and earnings that could extend for decades.
~Adam
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Ingredients of Deflation
The ongoing debate still rages…inflation or deflation? We’ve blogged a lot on these topics and it’s our stance that in the near term, deflation is the bigger risk. Longer term then, inflation will be a concern. Here’s a list of ingredients of deflation that we see as being currently present, and hence, why we believe that deflation is the greater near term risk.
- Rising Unemployment – There has never been a sustained inflationary period without wage inflation. Currently, wages are basically flat and falling. A few years ago 1 in 16 Americans were unemployed, today it is 1 in 5.
- Wealth Destruction – Two bear markets and a housing market collapse have put the American consumer on the ropes.
- Decreased Demand / Increased Savings – Savings rates have increased to 6% and is expected to rise over the next 3-5 years back up to the 9% level where it was 20 years ago.
- Low Capacity Utilization – This occurs when factories aren’t utilizing their full capacity. While this metric is rebounding, it is still lower than at any time since the data has been collected.
Not an exhaustive list, but certainly enough to help formulate our opinion. So, the question becomes, how do you invest in periods of near term deflation? Stay tuned til next time…
~Tony
SOURCE: www.2000wave.com